Trump Craze

It is hard to understand how a good percentage of Americans continue to retain their belief in Trump as the best candidate for president.  This, despite the fact that he recently was convicted on 34 felony counts in a New York City court of law.  It may be argued that he was convicted in a city that is dominantly democratic but in accordance with the law, the jury is to be selected in the location of the crime, which indeed was in New York.  Furthermore, he was neither convicted by President Biden nor the sitting judge on his case, but rather by twelve independently selected jurors.

I had thought that January 6^th, 2017 was Trump’s final call.  With an effort to overthrow constitutional law and to reject the election results determining Biden’s victory, chaos ensued.  Trump may not have told his followers to become violent but his words acted as a catalyst for the uprising on Capitol Hill that day.  Many of his firmest supporters, such as Mike Pence and Mitch McConnell, were taken aback and quite astonished at his actions.  Subsequently, the candidates he backed for congress in the 2022 all lost.   I was saddened by the fact that Nikki Haley, Trump’s recent opponent in the primaries, now is promoting him.   Why would Republicans support a man whose choices had produced nothing but losers?  I for one thought the Republicans would come to their senses and abandon a candidate whose morals were at best questionable, but at worst toxic and dangerous.  How little I knew, along with so many others, that Trump over the course of the next few years would see his candidacy as a contender for the American presidency become resurrected.

Cognitive dissonance is a theory first put forth by Leon Festinger stating that people whose attitudes and beliefs are not congruent with their behavior will feel discomfort.  This discomfort will move these people to realign their behavior with their underlying beliefs. A corollary to dissonance theory is that the greater one’s investment in a company or project the more committed that person will be to the project.  This makes it much harder to give up even if, subsequently, that same project becomes less lucrative over time.  The strong commitment to their political future may make it harder for many Republicans to stand up for their true underlying beliefs.  This commitment may bridge the gap between their beliefs and their behavior in which they voice their support for Mr. Trump.

Furthermore, cognitive dissonance may help to explain why so many people of high moral standards, such as devout Christians, remain tied to Trump.  One would think that their belief systems would contradict their behavior in supporting a man who cheated on his current wife a number of times along with slandering so many of those that get on his wrong side.  But the longer they stick with Mr. Trump their investment in him strengthens making it that much more difficult to change their behavior.  To reduce their underlying dissonance, they may experience about Trump, their belief system shifts toward their behavior allowing them to ignore any of his faults.

Amazingly, after being impeached on two occasions, being convicted on 34 felony counts, and having to face the likelihood of three other prosecutions in the future, Trump’s base remains steadfast.  Furthermore, twenty-four hours after his recent conviction in New York, his supporters raised 53 million dollars for is campaign.  The outcome of this behavior is to increase the commitment of those individuals, whose value system may be in opposition to what Trump personifies.  It is hard for me to surmise what despicable act Trump might perform in the future that would lead to the erosion of his base.  Trump understood this and was prescient in 2016, during his campaign to be reelected, when he said: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters.”

Karl Rove, a staunch Republican, wrote a column, months ago, in the Wall Street Journal where he believed if Trump were convicted of any of the charges filed against him, it would not help his chances to win the presidency.  Rove maintained he would retain his base of supporters, but may in fact lose some voters, who are on the fence vis-à-vis the coming election.  A recent poll conducted by the New York Times did indicate that Trump’s criminal convictions may affect a sliver of voters who are not as invested in him than is his base.  These voters could represent the difference in a tight race possibly providing Biden with an election win.  However, it is far too soon to predict in which direction these voters will go. 

The hope for Democrats is that Biden’s gaffes will not equal those of Trump and, that the latter will hoist himself by his own petard.  This, however, remains unpredictable, a fact that will make this election year one of the most interesting and perhaps most scary we will have experienced in the history of this great country.  Election results determine a definite winner.  More than ever, in part due to the ramification of social media and its algorithms fostering hate, there is a vehement loathing that each party holds toward the other.  Let us hope and pray that that emotion does not get in the way when one party is declared the winner over the other.