The Bet

My friend of 40 years, John Grahm, a man of the left, told me how upsetting it was that the Democrats lost the election for governor of Virginia, and, in general, did not do well at the polls this past November.  And then he uttered that unspeakable thought: “What if Trump runs and wins the election and once more becomes president in 2024.  “Aren’t you scared that this might happen,” he asked in a nervous tone.  With an air of confidence, I replied I had little concern inasmuch as a Trump Presidency is not a high likelihood.  I backed up this statement by posing a bet giving John 10 to 1 odds that Trump would not be our president in 2024:  I would pay John $1000 if Trump becomes president in 2024, but if he is not, John would have to pay me $100.  Surprised at my offer, he thought for a few moments and replied that he liked my proposition because he could hedge his bet.  That is, because he really did not want to win the bet, losing a $100 wouldn’t hurt that much. 

Before we made the bet, I wanted to make sure he understood its terms.  I made it clear that it didn’t matter whether Trump runs or not for president in 2024.  The bet simply is whether or not he will be the next president.  If he is not around to run in 2024, I automatically win the bet.  He agreed to these conditions, and we both stated our hope that he would lose the bet.

Unfortunately, for many of those that want to see Mr. Trump as a mere vestige of the past, Mr. Biden does not appear to get the message.  He is acting as if he won the election in a landslide and is attempting to follow in the footsteps of LBJ rather than the more modest and compromising Bill Clinton.  Mr. Biden apparently has forgotten that he was elected to unify the country with the hope that he could bring both Republicans and Democrats to the negotiating table.  To date, he has chosen to side with the more progressive element of his party that has been pleading to pass a huge fiscal stimulus package at a time when the country is already experiencing the highest rate of inflation (6.2 %) in the past 30 years.  Larry Summers, a registered Democrat, who was the Secretary of Treasury under President Clinton, has pointed out that too much governmental stimulus would inevitably produce further inflation.  He recently told Judy Woodruff on the PBS NewsHour he thought the infrastructure stimulus that Biden finally got through both the Senate and the House, as a signature win for his Presidency, would not cause inflation because it would be paid for over 10 years. Moreover, most people like myself, believe this particular act is extremely important inasmuch as much of the country’s thoroughfares are in need of mending.

But the buck does not stop there.  And this is where Mr. Biden might be overstepping his promises insofar as he appears to be appeasing the extreme left that attracts much media attention but not so much the vote of the populace nor that of the Congress.  The money that Mr. Biden is seeking under the rubric of the American Rescue Plan will come on the heels of the 1.9 trillion for Covid-19 economic relief and the 1 trillion Infrastructure Bill.  This money follows all the money the Trump administration injected into the economy to alleviate the consequences of the pandemic.  What might appear a gift to those named in the American Rescue Plan may turn out to have a boomerang effect, if it further worsens the inflation we already are facing.  Inflation eats away at one’s earning power in a like manner as taxes.  And as in most negative consequences vis-à-vis financial impact, the lower classes suffer the most from it.  What the government giveth, the economy may taketh away.

But it is not inflation alone that is Biden and the Democrat’s bugaboo.  Glenn Youngkin won the gubernatorial election in Virginia a few weeks ago becoming the first Republican to win a statewide election in the state since 2009.  Biden won both the electoral and popular vote in Virginia against Trump in the Presidential election by a substantial margin of more than 10%.  Contrary to his Democratic opponent McAuliffe, Youngkin argued that parents had a right to participate and inquire about what their children learned in school.  The fear of Critical Race Theory (CRT) taking over the educational system has become a source of bitter contention.

I am personally not opposed to allowing some of the ideas CRT espouses to be brought into the educational process.  But it should be seen as only one way of looking at and approaching history without eliminating other more traditional ways of viewing history.  Moreover, what CRT exactly means and how it will be taught require thorough analysis and comprehension.  The rapidity of change can create much turmoil and dissent in any society.  Both parties need to look at this process.  Unfortunately, most important matters, such as how America came to be, are hardly being discussed in any rational and balanced manner.

The issue of public safety is also another factor weighing on the American mind.  The rate of homicides has increased in almost all of American cities.  The response by progressives to defund police completely contradicts the statistics of the rising crime rate.  Trump, of course, represented himself as being tough on crime.  Although most Democrats by now have abandoned the idea of defunding police, the Biden administration has yet to adopt a plan for how to combat crime.  Areas where poorer people reside are often the hot spots of much lawlessness with many deaths by violence having occurred in these communities.

Given the above, President Biden’s approval rating has tumbled downward to a current low of 42%.  This, of course, is not a good omen for the Democrats.  Then there is the other factor that makes my bet against John even more undecided:  Republican continued support of Mr. Trump. Because of this support, the Republican party has sunk to its lower depths in many years.  The treatment that Liz Cheney received from her Republican colleagues in the House of Representatives regarding her desire to further investigate the attack on the Capitol–January 6^th by Trump’s followers—was nothing less than deplorable (excuse the use of the word, but in this context, I believe it to be appropriate).

It is not a coincidence that many brilliant political analysts that were former Republicans, such as George Will, Max Boot and Bret Stephens, have left the Republican party.  Furthermore, many prominent Republicans put together a political action committee (PAC) in 2019 with the aim of preventing the re-election of Donald Trump.  During his presidency, Mr. Trump’s shambolic gestures made in trashing the unwritten rules of American society has had a deleterious effect in and outside of the United States.  If the Republicans that represent us in Congress continue to pander to their past president, we may be ultimately finding ourselves either stuck with one party or two parties, one of which, the Republicans, is out of control.  Let us hope that neither of these very bad choices become realities in American politics.

In conclusion, a lot can happen before the next presidential election in November of 2024.  John and I disagree on a lot of issues.  But we both agree that Trump in the White House in 2024 would not augur well for our country.  Although Biden has made his share of mistakes as president, the jury is still out.  One positive sign is that our President has begun to look more closely at the bottleneck in supplies causing current demand to go unmet, a factor driving prices higher resulting in inflation.  

I can only hope that President Biden makes a greater effort in representing, not the loudest members of his party, but rather the majority of his party, and, I maintain, the majority of the country. That stance, if endorsed by Biden, in conjunction with the Republican sentiment of pulling away from Trump, will secure my bet.  Hopefully, it will go in the direction of a changing Republican party and a consolidated Democratic party.  If nothing else, the next two years indeed will be interesting.